Interesting point to ponder:
http://www.bchrma.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/rb-the-best-and-the-rest.pdf
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
Monday, October 1, 2012
Industrial v. Agrarian, Part I
Still working these thoughts out in my mind, but particularly liked this one I whipped off extemporaneousnessly here http://ironfiremen.com/2012/10/01/how-to-kill-a-fire-department/
Well, the good news is I've seen organizations rise. I've seen some fall. I've seen a few that still haven't gotten up. I'm not sure I've seen any go full circle from being fallen to risen to fallen...but give me another couple decades.
The bad news is I suspect hat you're describing, in part, is the conflict between an "industrial" and an "agrarian" approach to the world -- and that's a much bigger issue in our world today then just the fire service.
To an industrialist, units are units. You want to drive everything down to the simplest unit, to create systems that allow you to approach problems like algebra -- given the same operations the sum of x, y, and z will always equal the same thing. ISO 9001, Six Sigma. People aren't here to deeply understand what is going on but to follow set procedures. One of the logical conclusions are corporations too big to fail, because after all what is needed is just tweaking the rules a bit, to understand what still needs to be documented and systemized so someone else can step in, read the manual, and continue running the organization.
Wendell Berry will argue that an agrarian approach is oriented to observing nature, to using technology but using it with deep wisdom to building better farms, better communities -- things that last for a long time. Another farm writer, Gene Logsdon, will call it pastoral and point out that the the bible draws a difference between farmers (who are starting down the path of industrial temptation) and shepherds tending their flock. This is built on working to deeply understand your local situation, to figure out how to benefit from it economically and socially, and leave it better in the end. Joel Salatin won't get as philosophical but entertainingly shakes his head, in the book, "Folks, this ain't normal" at the conflicts between a regulatory system stuck in an industrial mindset and a farmer firmly planted in an agrarian world of his own. They will all draw a sharp contrast between their vision of a farmer, and the unfortunate many who are called farmers today but seem to be more industrial serfs trapped in a financial and industrial fiefdom.
An industrial mindset is that of "our instructors are just as good as yours" -- it's a unit and one is good as any other (after all, you both have rockers above your shoulder patches indicating you've been trained to NFPA 1041). Industrial is we know all we can know (until we find out we don't -- is there really a big difference the Charleston Sofa fire and the BP well blow out in the Gulf?) about something to make good decisions. To an industrial mindset, it's just a matter of applying or perhaps adjusting procedures -- eventually everything must have most consistently reproducable and lowest cost solution; for their regulators it becomes just keep on layering more rules until you force folks into that one - and only one - possible "best" solution.
Agrarian people are also replaceable -- one day you will retire, one day you will die. Did you leave your farm more productive then when the day you first went searching for chicken eggs? Did you leave your community, your organization a better one? Pastoral, if that's the better word, doesn't know all that there is -- they live a life full of doubt (a shepherd always wonders if a wolf is watching), full of always wondering how could things be done just a little bit better. In the community, are they building up friendships and lifting up neighbors? The decline of fraternal organizations like Grange, Elks, Masons is not unrelated to the decline of volunteer fire departments or the increasing difficulties in recruiting and retaining career firefighters. After all, you need not seek friendship to fill your spare time -- a unit is a unit, one television program is as good as a website is as good as going to a meeting to fill that time. Is the job of firefighting a calling (pastoral) or paycheck (industrial)?
A farmer -- in the agrarian mindset -- starts off collecting eggs as soon as he is old enough to walk and not drop too many, and moves on up to bucking haybales, turning a wrench, and penciling out the plans of what to plant and how much profit can be expected, all the while observing the world around him...and counseling his kids as they move up the chain and take over the management of the farm to help them avoid the worst mistakes; all the while wondering if only he had time to try that, or had done this different could he improve on the results? Contrast that to the fire chief who smuggly thinks he can manage scientifically simply because he's been given a prescriptive set of ideas from classes and standards and his limited personal knowledge hasn't yet been tested to it's limits -- and seeing he's achieved an artificial reality in the form of checking goals off a list, decides it's time to move on to a new town and a new set of goals to apply the same formula to.
I still haven't fleshed out this idea entirely, but the more I type over the last couple weeks on the subject the more convinced I'm becoming that this fundamental conflict between industrial and pastoral approaches is at the heart of much of the troubles we have today, and that's not limited to the fire service.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Rediscovery of Character
Great piece by David Brooks:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/opinion/brooks-the-rediscovery-of-character.html
“At root,” Wilson wrote in 1985 in The Public Interest, “in almost every area of important concern, we are seeking to induce persons to act virtuously, whether as schoolchildren, applicants for public assistance, would-be lawbreakers or voters and public officials.” When Wilson wrote about character and virtue, he didn’t mean anything high flown or theocratic. It was just the basics, befitting a man who grew up in the middle-class suburbs of Los Angeles in the 1940s: Behave in a balanced way. Think about the long-term consequences of your actions. Cooperate. Be decent. He did not believe that virtue was inculcated by prayer in schools. It was habituated by practicing good manners, by being dependable, punctual and responsible day by day. Wilson lived in an individualistic age, but he emphasized that character was formed in groups. As he wrote in “The Moral Sense,” his 1993 masterpiece, “Order exists because a system of beliefs and sentiments held by members of a society sets limits to what those members can do.” Wilson set out to learn how groups created a good order, why that order sometimes frayed. He worked patiently and meticulously. The phrase “we don’t know” rings throughout his writing. He was quick to admit ignorance in the face of knotty social problems.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
California, Culture, and Immigration
Nice article:
http://www.city-journal.org/2012/22_1_california-demographics.html
http://www.city-journal.org/2012/22_1_california-demographics.html
Friday, February 10, 2012
Civil War was about slavery
(Posting here so I can reference it easily)
And even better than my writing below:
I'm not going to engage in a debate here. But I will not let widely held but ignorant beliefs be stated without correction.
Anyone who reads contemporaneous documents on the subject will see it was entirely about slavery. To believe otherwise after reading them takes an act of deliberate ignorance.
No matter what political hyperbole or revisionist history is applied, it came down to a battle to "Preserve the Union (in order to end slavery)" or "State's Rights (to continue to enslave humans)."
Perhaps the four best documents on this matter are the Ordinances or Declarations of four of the southern states themselves in which they lay out the reason why the wanted to secede from the Union.
These aren't the anonymous postings of pamphleter, nor are they an editorial of a single newspaper, a personal letter, or writings of a single author.
These are either Public Acts or explanatory notes that accompanied the Acts, adopted either by a referendum or by a convention lawfully called and assembled. I can't think of anything that speaks to the sentiment of the people better then the documents they themselves voted to approve, or the Representatives they chose voted to approve.
Mississippi Declaration of Secession: http://www.civil-war.net/pages/mississippi_declaration.asp
South Caroline Declaration of Causes of Secession: http://www.sonofthesouth.net/leefoundation/secession_causes.htm
Georgia Declaration of Secession: http://www.scribd.com/doc/47469194/Georgia%E2%80%99s-Declaration-of-Secession
Texas Ordinance of Secession: http://www.lsjunction.com/docs/secesson.htm
Apart from the Ordinances, CSA Vice President Alexander Stephen's "Cornerstone Speech" of March 1861 laid it out as:
As I said, I'm not here to debate. There is nothing for reasonable men to debate -- the words of the people of the time are clear and unambiguous. To claim the Civil War was about anything other the slavery is as ludicrous as to state the Sun sometimes rises in the west and sets in the east.
And even better than my writing below:
I'm not going to engage in a debate here. But I will not let widely held but ignorant beliefs be stated without correction.
Anyone who reads contemporaneous documents on the subject will see it was entirely about slavery. To believe otherwise after reading them takes an act of deliberate ignorance.
No matter what political hyperbole or revisionist history is applied, it came down to a battle to "Preserve the Union (in order to end slavery)" or "State's Rights (to continue to enslave humans)."
Perhaps the four best documents on this matter are the Ordinances or Declarations of four of the southern states themselves in which they lay out the reason why the wanted to secede from the Union.
These aren't the anonymous postings of pamphleter, nor are they an editorial of a single newspaper, a personal letter, or writings of a single author.
These are either Public Acts or explanatory notes that accompanied the Acts, adopted either by a referendum or by a convention lawfully called and assembled. I can't think of anything that speaks to the sentiment of the people better then the documents they themselves voted to approve, or the Representatives they chose voted to approve.
Mississippi Declaration of Secession: http://www.civil-war.net/pages/mississippi_declaration.asp
In the momentous step, which our State has taken of dissolving its connection with the government of which we so long formed a part, it is but just that we should declare the prominent reasons which have induced our course.
Our position is thoroughly identified with the institution of slavery - the greatest material interest of the world.
South Caroline Declaration of Causes of Secession: http://www.sonofthesouth.net/leefoundation/secession_causes.htm
We affirm that these ends for which this Government was instituted have been defeated, and the Government itself has been made destructive of them by the action of the non-slaveholding States. Those States have assume the right of deciding upon the propriety of our domestic institutions; and have denied the rights of property established in fifteen of the States and recognized by the Constitution; they have denounced as sinful the institution of slavery; they have permitted open establishment among them of societies, whose avowed object is to disturb the peace and to eloign the property of the citizens of other States. They have encouraged and assisted thousands of our slaves to leave their homes; and those who remain, have been incited by emissaries, books and pictures to servile insurrection.
Georgia Declaration of Secession: http://www.scribd.com/doc/47469194/Georgia%E2%80%99s-Declaration-of-Secession
The people of Georgia having dissolved their political connection with theGovernment of the United States of America, present to their confederates and theworld the causes which have led to the separation. For the last ten years we have hadnumerous and serious causes of complaint against our non-slave-holding confederateStates with reference to the subject of African slavery.
Texas Ordinance of Secession: http://www.lsjunction.com/docs/secesson.htm
...was received as a commonwealth holding, maintaining and protecting the institution known as negro slavery--the servitude of the African to the white race within her limits...
The controlling majority of the Federal Government...avowed purpose [is] acquiring sufficient power in the common government to use it as a means of destroying the institutions of Texas and her sister slave-holding States.
Apart from the Ordinances, CSA Vice President Alexander Stephen's "Cornerstone Speech" of March 1861 laid it out as:
The new Constitution has put at rest forever all the agitating questions relating to our peculiar institutions—African slavery as it exists among us—the proper status of the negro in our form of civilization. This was the immediate cause of the late rupture and present revolution. Jefferson, in his forecast, had anticipated this, as the "rock upon which the old Union would split." He was right. What was conjecture with him, is now a realized fact. But whether he fully comprehended the great truth upon which that rock stood and stands, may be doubted. The prevailing ideas entertained by him and most of the leading statesmen at the time of the formation of the old Constitution were, that the enslavement of the African was in violation of the laws of nature; that it was wrong in principle, socially, morally and politically. It was an evil they knew not well how to deal with; but the general opinion of the men of that day was, that, somehow or other, in the order of Providence, the institution would be evanescent and pass away... Those ideas, however, were fundamentally wrong. They rested upon the assumption of the equality of races. This was an error. It was a sandy foundation, and the idea of a Government built upon it—when the "storm came and the wind blew, it fell."
Our new Government is founded upon exactly the opposite ideas; its foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and moral condition.
As I said, I'm not here to debate. There is nothing for reasonable men to debate -- the words of the people of the time are clear and unambiguous. To claim the Civil War was about anything other the slavery is as ludicrous as to state the Sun sometimes rises in the west and sets in the east.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Saturday, January 21, 2012
We're a Network
More and more I realize we're a Network -- and it's the skills at administering that system (and the natural resiliency built into that system) that matters most.
Here's one great article from The New Republic:
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/99521/america-world-power-declinism
And another good one on how the changes happening to how we train and recruit new workers:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576596630897409182.html
Many of the changes in the 2nd article date back to something mentioned in the 1st -- when faced with a stagnant economy circa 1987 American business began a ruthless restructuring that has maintained our share of the world GDP at around 25%. But we haven't completed the "rewiring" of our Network to from one dominated by long-lived Corporations to one in which jobs and companies have much shorter "half-lives" before they decay.
Here's one great article from The New Republic:
http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/99521/america-world-power-declinism
And another good one on how the changes happening to how we train and recruit new workers:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576596630897409182.html
Many of the changes in the 2nd article date back to something mentioned in the 1st -- when faced with a stagnant economy circa 1987 American business began a ruthless restructuring that has maintained our share of the world GDP at around 25%. But we haven't completed the "rewiring" of our Network to from one dominated by long-lived Corporations to one in which jobs and companies have much shorter "half-lives" before they decay.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Healthcare Costs
Because I'm not sure were else to save the spreadsheet I just made...
Healthcare & Food Expenditures, % GDP:
2010 Healthcare Food Total
United States: 13.9 6.8 20.7
Switzerland: 10.9 10.2 21.1
Germany: 10.8 11.4 22.2
France: 9.4 13.5 22.9
Canada: 9.4 9.1 18.5
Australia: 9.1 10.5 19.6
Belgium: 9 13 22
Average 10.35714286 10.64285714 21
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
The Exasperation of a Billionaire
Nice interview in the Wall Street Journal with Mortimer Zuckerman.
His narcissism is fundamentally different then that of Bill Clinton. Clinton, genuinely, feels peoples pain. He likes to shake hands and meet folks. It's personal. Of Obama I get the impression of someone who understands that folks are hurting through the lense of policy decisions.
That's the difference when Zuckerman talks about pain (people wanted costs controlled) and policy (but Obama instead made expanded coverage a priority). Obamacare makes more sense from a policy position if you believe in healthcare as a public service; it doesn't make sense if you look at it politically or within the financial situation of 2009/2010. When people were feeling deep and severe pain, Obama's actions were primarily in long-term policy areas -- Obamacare and supporting previous government policies that expanded state and local government by funneling "stimulus" money into preventing layoffs in areas that program costs had exceeded the ability of state and local governments to fund them.
Striking the right balance between the emotional and the rational is difficult. A lot of people are far stronger on one then the other. Favoring rational thought, however, can leave you blind to emotional factors that are just as critical to good leadership.
(Side note -- besides his comments directly on Obama, his real estate transactions starting in 2006 seem to be a good example of Positive / Negative Black Swan investing; by selling the buildings that would have a negative impact by a Black Swan -- the bubble bursting -- they put themselves in the position to have strong cash reserves and buy a couple premium buildings at discounts when the economy did crash.)
'It's as if he doesn't like people," says real-estate mogul and New York Daily News owner Mortimer Zuckerman of the president of the United States. Barack Obama doesn't seem to care for individuals, elaborates Mr. Zuckerman, though the president enjoys addressing millions of them on television.Reminds me of a personally favorite line from Mad Men, when Roger Sterling says to Don Draper, "The reason you're no good at relationships is you don't value them." Obama strikes me as one with a few (very few) but deep relationships. The rest, he doesn't value; not in a personal way.
His narcissism is fundamentally different then that of Bill Clinton. Clinton, genuinely, feels peoples pain. He likes to shake hands and meet folks. It's personal. Of Obama I get the impression of someone who understands that folks are hurting through the lense of policy decisions.
That's the difference when Zuckerman talks about pain (people wanted costs controlled) and policy (but Obama instead made expanded coverage a priority). Obamacare makes more sense from a policy position if you believe in healthcare as a public service; it doesn't make sense if you look at it politically or within the financial situation of 2009/2010. When people were feeling deep and severe pain, Obama's actions were primarily in long-term policy areas -- Obamacare and supporting previous government policies that expanded state and local government by funneling "stimulus" money into preventing layoffs in areas that program costs had exceeded the ability of state and local governments to fund them.
Striking the right balance between the emotional and the rational is difficult. A lot of people are far stronger on one then the other. Favoring rational thought, however, can leave you blind to emotional factors that are just as critical to good leadership.
(Side note -- besides his comments directly on Obama, his real estate transactions starting in 2006 seem to be a good example of Positive / Negative Black Swan investing; by selling the buildings that would have a negative impact by a Black Swan -- the bubble bursting -- they put themselves in the position to have strong cash reserves and buy a couple premium buildings at discounts when the economy did crash.)
Monday, October 17, 2011
Lie Spotting
Nifty TED Talk by Pamela Meyer. What I found fascinating was that contempt is the only emotion that's asymmetric -- that must have interesting implications for the left/right brain split, and also the left-gaze bias of humans and canines (looking at humans):
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/P_6vDLq64gE?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/P_6vDLq64gE?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Emotion, Reason, and Obama
Nice article I just read:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-the-loner-president/2011/10/03/gIQAHFcSTL_story.html
It's probably also the source of his faux-pas when the "technical" Obama imagining the theater of himself on the grand stage doesn't stop and think about the "personal" side of demanding to speak at the Brandenburg Gate; an honor that the Germans should extend to someone they wish to thank, not to be asked for by a candidate.
Thinking about the current uncertainty on the Republican nomination race, there's a long tradition of Republicans running more then once for the nomination. Nixon, Reagan, George H.W. Bush fit that mold. Thomas Dewey actually received the nomination twice ('44 and '48, though let's face it '44 was all about sacrificial lambs at the height of World War II), while Shrub was able to tap his father's network of relationships. Gerald Ford was the accidental President (and never ran for election), which leaves us with Eisenhower as the only "virgin" Republican nominee of the last 60 years -- but he had unbeatable name recognition and in a Republican party whose internal politics favor those who make friends the General who had to make all the other self-centered, ego filled Lieutenant Generals and higher get along in Europe he clearly had the personal diplomatic skills needed to make people feel personally valued.
Romney is very good at the science of management, though he's "flexible" to be kind on policy -- call it cold calculus, when one policy is politically dead he replaces...Obama may accept healthcare without a public option, but Romney is a chameleon who can change from pro-choice to pro-life as it suits political expediency. He's not charismatic in exuding an authentic charm, I'm certain he'd admit it himself.
Herman Cain, guy got game. The least qualified of the major candidates (though I reserve "worse" as a tie to the two psychological basket cases of Bachman and Gingrich), he can connect emotionally. I've heard some of the most genuine sounding soundbites I've ever heard from a politician listening to radio stories that included a Cain quote. Cain being the current front runner by the polls is I'm sure a shock even to him, since I don't think he ever thought of himself as an actually serious candidate. (Huntsman by the way tops the list to me as the best qualified in the range of his experience, but I have the impression he's running this time mainly with an eye on future campaigns)
Obama is, in short, a political loner who prefers policy over the people who make politics in this country work. “He likes politics,” said a Washington veteran who supports Obama, “but like a campaign manager likes politics, not a candidate.”
The former draws energy from science and strategy, the latter from contact with people.
Which raises an odd question: Is it possible to be America’s most popular politician and not be very good at American politics?We know Obama can connect emotionally, in a very particular way and with great preparation -- we've heard him deliver well prepared speeches. But that doesn't mean the fire is in the belly to, in the words of Martha Coakley, "stand outside of Fenway, in the cold, shaking hands."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-the-loner-president/2011/10/03/gIQAHFcSTL_story.html
It's probably also the source of his faux-pas when the "technical" Obama imagining the theater of himself on the grand stage doesn't stop and think about the "personal" side of demanding to speak at the Brandenburg Gate; an honor that the Germans should extend to someone they wish to thank, not to be asked for by a candidate.
Thinking about the current uncertainty on the Republican nomination race, there's a long tradition of Republicans running more then once for the nomination. Nixon, Reagan, George H.W. Bush fit that mold. Thomas Dewey actually received the nomination twice ('44 and '48, though let's face it '44 was all about sacrificial lambs at the height of World War II), while Shrub was able to tap his father's network of relationships. Gerald Ford was the accidental President (and never ran for election), which leaves us with Eisenhower as the only "virgin" Republican nominee of the last 60 years -- but he had unbeatable name recognition and in a Republican party whose internal politics favor those who make friends the General who had to make all the other self-centered, ego filled Lieutenant Generals and higher get along in Europe he clearly had the personal diplomatic skills needed to make people feel personally valued.
Romney is very good at the science of management, though he's "flexible" to be kind on policy -- call it cold calculus, when one policy is politically dead he replaces...Obama may accept healthcare without a public option, but Romney is a chameleon who can change from pro-choice to pro-life as it suits political expediency. He's not charismatic in exuding an authentic charm, I'm certain he'd admit it himself.
Herman Cain, guy got game. The least qualified of the major candidates (though I reserve "worse" as a tie to the two psychological basket cases of Bachman and Gingrich), he can connect emotionally. I've heard some of the most genuine sounding soundbites I've ever heard from a politician listening to radio stories that included a Cain quote. Cain being the current front runner by the polls is I'm sure a shock even to him, since I don't think he ever thought of himself as an actually serious candidate. (Huntsman by the way tops the list to me as the best qualified in the range of his experience, but I have the impression he's running this time mainly with an eye on future campaigns)
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Connecticut's internecine war continues...
My last post had the comments from Edith Prague, a state Senator.
Here's comments from one of the Correction Officer's union officials:
Fair enough -- controlling the message is important. There is balance to be struck, and frankly messages often need to be tailored to different groups. Tailoring can make very different suits out of the same cloth, without changing the cloth and keeping the suit functional.
But then Brace himself falls completely down:
I'm pretty certain, however, going on to call your own membership stupid and lazy is not an effective way to influence people towards adopting your position.
Is Brace representing the interests of his members?
Or did he just throw them under the bus so he could curry favor with state political leaders, "Look, it wasn't us (your friends), it was those darn dumb members of ours! We can't control what they do when they won't listen!"
With friends, and leaders, like this who needs enemies?
From what I was reading in the paper and listening to on the radio before the deal was officially voted down, I had a feeling it was going to be defeated because the rank and file was feeling their leadership had abandoned them. The leaders' actions since then certainly reinforce that narrative.
Here's comments from one of the Correction Officer's union officials:
[Kevin Brace, the steward at the Northern Correctional Institute, wrote a letter to Moises Padilla, an outspoken union leader in Cheshire], "I am pleading with you to please stop talking to the press about SEBAC, and to let things work themselves out. I am not censoring your right to free speech. I am just pointing out to you that sometimes the best intentions don't always produce the best results.
Fair enough -- controlling the message is important. There is balance to be struck, and frankly messages often need to be tailored to different groups. Tailoring can make very different suits out of the same cloth, without changing the cloth and keeping the suit functional.
But then Brace himself falls completely down:
"I believe our union made a huge mistake by voting the SEBAC agreement down,'' Brace wrote. "It was our members' self-imposed ignorance that kept them away from the informational meetings that we held. Meetings that if you had attended might have put your apprehensions to rest.''
I'm pretty certain, however, going on to call your own membership stupid and lazy is not an effective way to influence people towards adopting your position.
Is Brace representing the interests of his members?
Or did he just throw them under the bus so he could curry favor with state political leaders, "Look, it wasn't us (your friends), it was those darn dumb members of ours! We can't control what they do when they won't listen!"
With friends, and leaders, like this who needs enemies?
From what I was reading in the paper and listening to on the radio before the deal was officially voted down, I had a feeling it was going to be defeated because the rank and file was feeling their leadership had abandoned them. The leaders' actions since then certainly reinforce that narrative.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
And the way not to approach things...
If these are your friends -- and Edith Prague is one of the most liberal, pro-labor members in the already left leaning Connecticut General Assembly -- I really hate to think of what your enemy thinks of you:
Let's see, you've just called the folks whose votes you really want:
-- stupid
-- selfish
-- crazy
in the course of a few paragraphs. This at a time when it's already clear (and has been for a couple weeks) to anyone following just what's been leaking out to the news and radio call-in shows that there is a gulf of distrust between union rank and file members, and their leadership (an opinion the leadership is brown-nosing the top Democratic party leaders in Connecticut and after over 20 years out of the Governors mansion were desperate to make him look good).
She also played two big concerns many folks have had (primarily) about Democrats.
The "ask for a re-vote of the units that voted it down" smacks of the Daley's famous, "Vote early and often!" big-city political shenanigans (and Malloy won office due to Connecticut's largest city putting him over the top at the end...while he would've won Bridgeport anyways, the irregularities and poorly run election there was a head shaker).
While the call for vengeance against those who voted against it -- to lay them off -- lays naked on the table the biggest single reason abolishing the secret ballot in union elections, the goal of organized labor's Card Check campaign, is such a terrible, awful idea.
Sen. Edith Prague, a Columbia Democrat, said she cannot understand the voting trend.
"It's a nightmare. It is a nightmare to think these folks don't understand that there are dire consequences of them not accepting the SEBAC agreement,'' Prague said. "It is a good agreement. They are lucky to have these benefits. Nobody in their right mind, under these circumstances, would turn down that agreement. It's just got to be that they are believing this horrible, horrible information that is being put out there on their health plan. They think they are going to be put into the HUSKY plan? Give me a break. They are getting misinformation. They just don't understand what is real and what is garbage.''
She added, "I can't explain it. It is a disaster. Don't they realize it is a disaster to vote this agreement down. They could be part of the layoffs. Don't they know that? That's a real possibility that they could be voting to lay themselves off. ... I actually called Sal Luciano and said, Can I do something? He said, Edith, I've tried everything.''
"If they don't care about their fellow employees, they better start caring about themselves. If they think that, they are stupid. ... I can't imagine them being so stupid.''
Concerning the purported role of the Yankee Institute in spreading disinformation to tank the deal, Prague said, "I wouldn't be surprised. As a matter of fact, I think they want Malloy to fail. ... They're a mighty force. They get their message out there. I heard Jim Vicevich, who I never listen to, and he was blasting the deal. Those state employees ought to listen to their union leaders like Sal Luciano. ... I'm hoping there's some way that SEBAC can make an adjustment and ask for a re-vote of those units that voted it down. I don't know if that's possible.''
Regarding Malloy, Prague said, "The guy is giving state employees the biggest deal they could ever have. ... This governor is not joking. Consequently, there are thousands of people who could lose their jobs. I don't think bumping rights should enter this picture at all. I don't know where you can find 7,000 state employees to lay off. If they vote this down, they're putting themselves in jeopardy.''
"Social workers. I can't figure it out - unless they're believing the propaganda that's out there,'' said Prague, a former social worker who holds a master's degree in the field. "I think they're out of their minds, and if I had the chance, I would tell him. ... I don't know why these people are voting down this agreement. The private sector folks would die for this kind of package. They don't have good retirement benefits. They don't have the kind of healthcare, for minimum cost, that state employees have.''
Prague, who never saw the rejection coming, says the people who vote against the agreement should be the ones who are laid off.
Let's see, you've just called the folks whose votes you really want:
-- stupid
-- selfish
-- crazy
in the course of a few paragraphs. This at a time when it's already clear (and has been for a couple weeks) to anyone following just what's been leaking out to the news and radio call-in shows that there is a gulf of distrust between union rank and file members, and their leadership (an opinion the leadership is brown-nosing the top Democratic party leaders in Connecticut and after over 20 years out of the Governors mansion were desperate to make him look good).
She also played two big concerns many folks have had (primarily) about Democrats.
The "ask for a re-vote of the units that voted it down" smacks of the Daley's famous, "Vote early and often!" big-city political shenanigans (and Malloy won office due to Connecticut's largest city putting him over the top at the end...while he would've won Bridgeport anyways, the irregularities and poorly run election there was a head shaker).
While the call for vengeance against those who voted against it -- to lay them off -- lays naked on the table the biggest single reason abolishing the secret ballot in union elections, the goal of organized labor's Card Check campaign, is such a terrible, awful idea.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
The Science of Why We Don't Believe Science
The theory of motivated reasoning builds on a key insight of modern neuroscience (PDF): Reasoning is actually suffused with emotion (or what researchers often call "affect"). Not only are the two inseparable, but our positive or negative feelings about people, things, and ideas arise much more rapidly than our conscious thoughts, in a matter of milliseconds—fast enough to detect with an EEG device, but long before we're aware of it. That shouldn't be surprising: Evolution required us to react very quickly to stimuli in our environment. It's a "basic human survival skill," explains political scientist Arthur Lupia of the University of Michigan. We push threatening information away; we pull friendly information close. We apply fight-or-flight reflexes not only to predators, but to data itself.
...
We're not driven only by emotions, of course—we also reason, deliberate. But reasoning comes later, works slower—and even then, it doesn't take place in an emotional vacuum. Rather, our quick-fire emotions can set us on a course of thinking that's highly biased, especially on topics we care a great deal about.
...
In Kahan's research (PDF), individuals are classified, based on their cultural values, as either "individualists" or "communitarians," and as either "hierarchical" or "egalitarian" in outlook. (Somewhat oversimplifying, you can think of hierarchical individualists as akin to conservative Republicans, and egalitarian communitarians as liberal Democrats.) In one study, subjects in the different groups were asked to help a close friend determine the risks associated with climate change, sequestering nuclear waste, or concealed carry laws: "The friend tells you that he or she is planning to read a book about the issue but would like to get your opinion on whether the author seems like a knowledgeable and trustworthy expert." A subject was then presented with the résumé of a fake expert "depicted as a member of the National Academy of Sciences who had earned a Ph.D. in a pertinent field from one elite university and who was now on the faculty of another." The subject was then shown a book excerpt by that "expert," in which the risk of the issue at hand was portrayed as high or low, well-founded or speculative. The results were stark: When the scientist's position stated that global warming is real and human-caused, for instance, only 23 percent of hierarchical individualists agreed the person was a "trustworthy and knowledgeable expert." Yet 88 percent of egalitarian communitarians accepted the same scientist's expertise. Similar divides were observed on whether nuclear waste can be safely stored underground and whether letting people carry guns deters crime. (The alliances did not always hold. In another study (PDF), hierarchs and communitarians were in favor of laws that would compel the mentally ill to accept treatment, whereas individualists and egalitarians were opposed.)
...
And that undercuts the standard notion that the way to persuade people is via evidence and argument. In fact, head-on attempts to persuade can sometimes trigger a backfire effect, where people not only fail to change their minds when confronted with the facts—they may hold their wrong views more tenaciously than ever.
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/03/denial-science-chris-mooney?page=1
The reader comments, following the subject of this article, are priceless.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Stimulating Stories
Seeking stimulation is a core part of being Human.
We evolved on the plains of Africa, as prey. Our distant ancestors were ever alert for danger.
People like stories; they get stimulation from good stories.
(I wonder if anyone has done scientific research trying to link teen's love of horror movies with those ancient genes from back when were the prey and not the alpha predator.)
But stimulation usually doesn't come from the new. Indeed, re-stimulating the existing can be very effective. Our memories depend on it to "lock" in our experiences -- whether it's repeated like a teacher drilling on the ABCs, or our dreams replaying the events. Stimulation from repeating past experience is easy stimulation. New things are complex to understand; we like stimulation, we don't like anxiety; it takes time to understand and overcome anxiety over the different. Repeating a past stimulation is a mental version of comfort food.
It doesn't have to be a story -- alcohol or potato chips or any of a myriad of other objects or actions can provide that repetitive stimulation.
And here's a problem -- the stories that resonate best with some people irritate others. Listen to Rush Limbaugh; he provides a narrative and regular reinforcement. It's stimulating. Others who haven't bought into his right-wing narrative may instead find enjoyment in a left-wing narrative they've bought into. It's not about right or wrong; it's about the storyline they've come to enjoy and how they get regular hits of stimulation again from it. Then there's the love-to-hate crowd; they're getting stimulation not from a positive emotional response but from a negative emotional response to Limbaugh.
The resonate story is one that stimulates; and good leadership involves the ability to constantly stimulate your followers -- make them keep looking towards you, knowing they'll get a bit of that stimulation people are constantly craving.
We evolved on the plains of Africa, as prey. Our distant ancestors were ever alert for danger.
People like stories; they get stimulation from good stories.
(I wonder if anyone has done scientific research trying to link teen's love of horror movies with those ancient genes from back when were the prey and not the alpha predator.)
But stimulation usually doesn't come from the new. Indeed, re-stimulating the existing can be very effective. Our memories depend on it to "lock" in our experiences -- whether it's repeated like a teacher drilling on the ABCs, or our dreams replaying the events. Stimulation from repeating past experience is easy stimulation. New things are complex to understand; we like stimulation, we don't like anxiety; it takes time to understand and overcome anxiety over the different. Repeating a past stimulation is a mental version of comfort food.
It doesn't have to be a story -- alcohol or potato chips or any of a myriad of other objects or actions can provide that repetitive stimulation.
And here's a problem -- the stories that resonate best with some people irritate others. Listen to Rush Limbaugh; he provides a narrative and regular reinforcement. It's stimulating. Others who haven't bought into his right-wing narrative may instead find enjoyment in a left-wing narrative they've bought into. It's not about right or wrong; it's about the storyline they've come to enjoy and how they get regular hits of stimulation again from it. Then there's the love-to-hate crowd; they're getting stimulation not from a positive emotional response but from a negative emotional response to Limbaugh.
The resonate story is one that stimulates; and good leadership involves the ability to constantly stimulate your followers -- make them keep looking towards you, knowing they'll get a bit of that stimulation people are constantly craving.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Google Analysis of Managers
Got sucked in by winter, hopefully I can get back on track with new posts here!
The New York Times this week had a fascinating article on Google using their analysis skills focused on trying to figure out what worked and didn't work for their managers -- and using the feedback to "tune up" their poorer managers.
Many organizations may not have the resources of Google, but this approach is fascinating to me if for no other reason but the intensive and effective focus on what actually works and how do you get there:
The New York Times this week had a fascinating article on Google using their analysis skills focused on trying to figure out what worked and didn't work for their managers -- and using the feedback to "tune up" their poorer managers.
Many organizations may not have the resources of Google, but this approach is fascinating to me if for no other reason but the intensive and effective focus on what actually works and how do you get there:
“The starting point was that our best managers have teams that perform better, are retained better, are happier — they do everything better,” Mr. Bock says. “So the biggest controllable factor that we could see was the quality of the manager, and how they sort of made things happen. The question we then asked was: What if every manager was that good? And then you start saying: Well, what makes them that good? And how do you do it?”
In Project Oxygen, the statisticians gathered more than 10,000 observations about managers — across more than 100 variables, from various performance reviews, feedback surveys and other reports. Then they spent time coding the comments in order to look for patterns.
Once they had some working theories, they figured out a system for interviewing managers to gather more data, and to look for evidence that supported their notions. The final step was to code and synthesize all those results — more than 400 pages of interview notes — and then they spent much of last year rolling out the results to employees and incorporating them into various training programs.
The process of reading and coding all the information was time-consuming. This was one area where computers couldn’t help, says Michelle Donovan, a manager of people analytics who was involved in the study.
“People say there’s software that can help you do that,” she says. “It’s been our experience that you just have to get in there and read it.”
GIVEN the familiar feel of the list of eight qualities, the project might have seemed like an exercise in reinventing the wheel. But Google generally prefers, for better or worse, to build its own wheels.
“We want to understand what works at Google rather than what worked in any other organization,” says Prasad Setty, Google’s vice president for people analytics and compensation.
Once Google had its list, the company started teaching it in training programs, as well as in coaching and performance review sessions with individual employees. It paid off quickly.
“We were able to have a statistically significant improvement in manager quality for 75 percent of our worst-performing managers,” Mr. Bock says.
He tells the story of one manager whose employees seemed to despise him. He was driving them too hard. They found him bossy, arrogant, political, secretive. They wanted to quit his team.
“He’s brilliant, but he did everything wrong when it came to leading a team,” Mr. Bock recalls.
Because of that heavy hand, this manager was denied a promotion he wanted, and was told that his style was the reason. But Google gave him one-on-one coaching — the company has coaches on staff, rather than hiring from the outside. Six months later, team members were grudgingly acknowledging in surveys that the manager had improved.
“And a year later, it’s actually quite a bit better,” Mr. Bock says. “It’s still not great. He’s nowhere near one of our best managers, but he’s not our worst anymore. And he got promoted.”
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Another nice, efficient speech
Efficient:
Yesterday, December 7th, 1941 -- a date which will live in infamy -- the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.
The United States was at peace with that nation and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its government and its emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific.
Indeed, one hour after Japanese air squadrons had commenced bombing in the American island of Oahu, the Japanese ambassador to the United States and his colleague delivered to our Secretary of State a formal reply to a recent American message. And while this reply stated that it seemed useless to continue the existing diplomatic negotiations, it contained no threat or hint of war or of armed attack.
It will be recorded that the distance of Hawaii from Japan makes it obvious that the attack was deliberately planned many days or even weeks ago. During the intervening time, the Japanese government has deliberately sought to deceive the United States by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.
The attack yesterday on the Hawaiian islands has caused severe damage to American naval and military forces. I regret to tell you that very many American lives have been lost. In addition, American ships have been reported torpedoed on the high seas between San Francisco and Honolulu.
Yesterday, the Japanese government also launched an attack against Malaya.
Last night, Japanese forces attacked Hong Kong.
Last night, Japanese forces attacked Guam.
Last night, Japanese forces attacked the Philippine Islands.
Last night, the Japanese attacked Wake Island.
And this morning, the Japanese attacked Midway Island.
Japan has, therefore, undertaken a surprise offensive extending throughout the Pacific area. The facts of yesterday and today speak for themselves. The people of the United States have already formed their opinions and well understand the implications to the very life and safety of our nation.As commander in chief of the Army and Navy, I have directed that all measures be taken for our defense. But always will our whole nation remember the character of the onslaught against us.
No matter how long it may take us to overcome this premeditated invasion, the American people in their righteous might will win through to absolute victory.
I believe that I interpret the will of the Congress and of the people when I assert that we will not only defend ourselves to the uttermost, but will make it very certain that this form of treachery shall never again endanger us.
Hostilities exist. There is no blinking at the fact that our people, our territory, and our interests are in grave danger.
With confidence in our armed forces, with the unbounding determination of our people, we will gain the inevitable triumph -- so help us God.
I ask that the Congress declare that since the unprovoked and dastardly attack by Japan on Sunday, December 7th, 1941, a state of war has existed between the United States and the Japanese empire.
Another nice, efficient speech
Efficient:
Yesterday, December 7th, 1941 -- a date which will live in infamy -- the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.
The United States was at peace with that nation and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its government and its emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific.
Indeed, one hour after Japanese air squadrons had commenced bombing in the American island of Oahu, the Japanese ambassador to the United States and his colleague delivered to our Secretary of State a formal reply to a recent American message. And while this reply stated that it seemed useless to continue the existing diplomatic negotiations, it contained no threat or hint of war or of armed attack.
It will be recorded that the distance of Hawaii from Japan makes it obvious that the attack was deliberately planned many days or even weeks ago. During the intervening time, the Japanese government has deliberately sought to deceive the United States by false statements and expressions of hope for continued peace.
The attack yesterday on the Hawaiian islands has caused severe damage to American naval and military forces. I regret to tell you that very many American lives have been lost. In addition, American ships have been reported torpedoed on the high seas between San Francisco and Honolulu.
Yesterday, the Japanese government also launched an attack against Malaya.
Last night, Japanese forces attacked Hong Kong.
Last night, Japanese forces attacked Guam.
Last night, Japanese forces attacked the Philippine Islands.
Last night, the Japanese attacked Wake Island.
And this morning, the Japanese attacked Midway Island.
Japan has, therefore, undertaken a surprise offensive extending throughout the Pacific area. The facts of yesterday and today speak for themselves. The people of the United States have already formed their opinions and well understand the implications to the very life and safety of our nation.As commander in chief of the Army and Navy, I have directed that all measures be taken for our defense. But always will our whole nation remember the character of the onslaught against us.
No matter how long it may take us to overcome this premeditated invasion, the American people in their righteous might will win through to absolute victory.
I believe that I interpret the will of the Congress and of the people when I assert that we will not only defend ourselves to the uttermost, but will make it very certain that this form of treachery shall never again endanger us.
Hostilities exist. There is no blinking at the fact that our people, our territory, and our interests are in grave danger.
With confidence in our armed forces, with the unbounding determination of our people, we will gain the inevitable triumph -- so help us God.
I ask that the Congress declare that since the unprovoked and dastardly attack by Japan on Sunday, December 7th, 1941, a state of war has existed between the United States and the Japanese empire.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Mark Templeton
Mark Templeton (Citrix) credits his trajectory from mid-level manager to CEO solely to his personal investment in communication. Once a manager focused on tactics, he evolved into a leader by becoming a student of communications and learning how to instill vision.
Nancy Duarte, Slide:ology
Thursday, November 18, 2010
All happy families
Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.
Does Leo Tolstoy's opening line to Anna Karenina also hold true for projects -- are all projects that just progress smoothly from the start alike, but each that fails or at least becomes a long slog to finish do so in unique ways?
Does this extend to organizations as well?
That question formed in my mind while in a meeting today. While I didn't come to any conclusion after pondering it for a while, I did decide it's an important question to ask.
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